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As the conclave to elect Pope Francis' successor approaches, Rome finds itself immersed in a unique tradition. Instead of soccer, the city's main focus is on "toto-cardinale," a widespread pastime of speculating on the next pope, known informally in betting markets as "toto-papa." Despite gambling being prohibited in Italy, everyone from altar boys to taxi drivers believes they have insights on the potential papal successor.
The streets of Rome buzz with speculation, as the Vatican prepares for the conclave by securing the Sistine Chapel. Meanwhile, outside, civil protection volunteers from Emilia Romagna provide security and share rumored insights with journalists about cardinal sightings. As one volunteer commented, “We’ve been playing ‘toto-cardinale’ all morning," citing Jean-Marc Aveline from France and Anders Arborelius from Sweden as strong contenders. Additionally, the Italian Patriarch of Jerusalem, Pierbattista Pizzaballa, was mentioned as a favorite, leading the volunteer to joke about the unpredictability of the conclave process.
Inside Rome's Hostaria Da Roberto, wait staff and journalists gather to exchange their latest speculations. A waiter shares a list of his top papal picks but remains tight-lipped about his sources: “Journalists, cardinals — they all think they know. But here’s the rule: you reveal the sin, not the sinner,” he quips.
Taxi drivers also engage in the papal guessing game. Marco, a driver in Rome, is hopeful for an Italian pope, emphasizing Pizzaballa's courage: “Pizzaballa, he’s got the right spirit...Remember how he offered himself in exchange for children held hostage by Hamas in 2023?” Marco feels confident about his speculation while navigating traffic.
Despite the widespread conjecture, the cardinals themselves remain largely uninvolved with these discussions. Many express a quiet reserve when asked about their preferences. A veteran Vatican observer noted, “No one walks into a conclave certain of the outcome...The only sure thing is that the Holy Spirit still gets a vote.”
The conclave, set to start on May 7, 2025, will signal an end to Rome's guessing game, at least until the next papal transition. Meanwhile, Romans continue to indulge in this tradition, convinced that they, or someone they know, might just predict the next leader of the Catholic Church.
Ines San Martin contributes this report from Rome for OSV News.
