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New data suggests that the number of immigrants in the United States without permanent legal status is significantly lower than previous claims made by the Trump administration. J. Kevin Appleby, a senior fellow at the Center for Migration Studies of New York, stated that "talk of an invasion is overblown." This comes after a journal article by Robert Warren, also from CMS, was published in the Journal on Migration and Human Security.
Warren's research indicates that the undocumented population in the U.S. was 12.2 million in 2023, a figure notably less than the 15 to 20 million previously cited by former President Trump during his campaign trail. Appleby commented that inflating these numbers serves to justify a mass deportation agenda.
The report highlights that nearly half of those counted among the higher estimates actually possess some form of legal status. From 2020 to 2023, unauthorized residents increased by about two million, with significant contributions from Mexico and several Central and South American countries. California, Florida, New York, and Illinois saw increases in individuals lacking permanent legal status.
Data from Homeland Security showed a decline in arrivals at the U.S.-Mexico border during late fiscal year 2024 and into early 2025. Warren noted this trend could shift primary growth back to visa overstays rather than illegal border crossings if it continues.
Warren's findings were based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey and included individuals under programs like Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) and Temporary Protected Status (TPS). However, future tracking may be challenged due to potential federal budget cuts affecting data collection.
The Catholic Church emphasizes balancing immigration rights with national sovereignty while advocating for humane treatment of migrants. The Catechism encourages prosperous nations to welcome foreigners seeking security unavailable in their home countries but also recognizes limits imposed by human laws subject to divine reasoning.
Appleby emphasized that many undocumented individuals have longstanding ties within U.S. communities and should be offered pathways to citizenship under Catholic social teaching principles.
Gina Christian reports for OSV News.
